ABSTRACT: As far as the development of new energy sector is concerned, the downstream demand of Non-ferrous metal has become the most closely related to the development of new energy. By our calculation of non-ferrous major varieties of new energy consumption in the future changes in the proportion of plate is roughly as follows:

1. 2022 annual aluminum consumption is estimated to be 40.4 million tons in 2022 according to the balance of supply and demand, based on the 1% growth rate of aluminum consumption from 2022 onwards, the new energy sector will account for 8.79 percent of the country’s aluminum consumption by 2025, up from 2.71 percent in 2018. Visible new energy plate for the promotion of aluminum consumption is also the aluminum industry development can not be ignored in a direction.

New Energy automobile-aluminum automobile manufacturing industry is one of the main application fields of industrial aluminum profiles. The lightweight of automobile contributes to the energy saving and emission reduction of traditional fuel vehicles, and therefore has a more direct relationship with carbon dioxide emissions. According to the research data, if the vehicle quality decreases by 10% , the fuel efficiency can be improved by 6%-8% , the vehicle quality reduces by 1% , the fuel consumption can be reduced by 0.7% , and the fuel consumption can be reduced by 0.3 l-0.6 L for every 100 kg of vehicle quality reduced, carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced by about 5 G/KM. Therefore, as an important means of energy-saving and emission reduction, vehicle lightweight will become the development direction of the automobile industry in the future. Because of its outstanding advantages such as good weight reduction effect and good safety performance, aluminum alloy has become the main application material for automobile lightweight. Aluminum parts can be used in various aspects of automobile, including body, engine casing, chassis, battery pack casing, etc. . It is expected that with the development trend of vehicle lightweight, aluminum parts will be more applied. The requirement of light weight is higher and higher, and the demand of aluminum alloy is also increasing. In 2020, aluminum alloy will occupy nearly 65% of the automobile light weight market.

As for the new energy vehicle, lightweight is also conducive to increase the range, promote its promotion and application. Compared with internal combustion engine vehicles, aluminum used in new energy vehicles has higher strength and deformation ratio. Because the new energy automobile mostly uses the aluminum chassis to realize the light weight, some models even use the aluminum body; The 3003 aluminum alloy is used to package the power battery composed of lithium battery modules and the quick charging pile of the new energy vehicle is required to assemble the aluminum profile track and the aluminum cable. The average aluminum consumption of a new energy vehicle is about 80-120 kg more than that of a traditional fuel vehicle. Therefore, the new energy automobile industry for the demand for aluminum shows an increasing trend. China proposes to sell all new cars by 2035 must be electric vehicles, including pure electric and hybrid accounted for half. According to the China Automobile Industry Association, the annual compound growth rate of new energy vehicle production capacity is expected to be 40.5 percent from 2020 to 2025, and the production of new energy vehicles will be 7.48 million units in 2025. On the basis of 2020 data, it is assumed that the proportion of new energy vehicles will remain the same in the next five years (72% for pure electric passenger vehicles, 19% for hybrid passenger vehicles and 9% for new energy passenger vehicles) , then, based on the forecast of aluminum use in the next five years by the China Aluminum Association, the amount of aluminum used in new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 1.76 million tons in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 50 percent from 2020 to 2025.

Photovoltaic-aluminum demand since the proposed 2030“Carbon peak”and 2060“Carbon-neutral”goal, the photovoltaic industry has received unprecedented attention, industry development speed up. Photovoltaic power generation is a technology that uses the photovoltaic effect of a semiconductor interface to convert light energy directly into electricity. Its key components are solar cells, pV installed capacity refers to the number of kilowatt (kwp) or megawatt (mwp) modules used in pv plants. Aluminum is widely used in photovoltaic installations because of its unique physics and chemical property. In the photovoltaic field, aluminum alloy is mainly used in the photovoltaic module frame and bracket two parts. The frame of pv module is mainly made of aluminum alloy, and the installation of PV power system or application products is also made of aluminum alloy, so that the sunlight can not penetrate the aluminum slurry layer after passing through the silicon wafer, sunlight is refracted to form a secondary absorption of light energy. Watt consumes about 19,000 tonnes of aluminium per installed photovoltaic capacity. Based on the installed capacity data (in Gigawatts) of the photovoltaics from 2021 to 2025 projected by the Chinese photovoltaic industry association, the Aluminum Alloy used in the photovoltaic field is mainly composed of a photovoltaic module frame and a bracket, therefore, based on about 19,000 tons of aluminum per gigawatt used in pv system, the annual amount of aluminum used in pv system is calculated (unit: 10,000 tons) .

Given the global pace of “Carbon neutrality”, the prospects for the photovoltaics industry and its strategic position in the energy sector, and the corresponding prospects for aluminum consumption, it is estimated that by 2025, China will consume 1.9 million tons of aluminum in photovoltaic production. Copper New Energy & new infrastructure is in full swing, and as one of the Non-ferrous metal most closely related to copper, its new energy sector is expected to continue to account for a higher share of total demand. The specific copper consumption ratio is shown in the following figure:

New Energy vehicle-copper there are two main types of new energy vehicles on the market, one is a pure electric vehicle and the other is a petrol-electric hybrid vehicle. Starting from 2016, the ratio of pure electric vehicles to petrol-electric hybrid vehicles will basically remain at the level of 4:1, new Energy pure electric vehicles consume 90 kg of copper per vehicle, and hybrid vehicles consume 60 kg of copper per vehicle, so the weighted average consumption of copper per vehicle is about 84 kg. In addition, closely related to the development of new energy vehicles is the new addition of charging posts. The ratio of AC to DC charging posts is 4.5:1, and each public AC charging post consumes about 4 kg of copper, each public DC charging post consumes about 70 kg of copper, and the weighted average consumption of copper per charging post is about 17.6 kg. Suppose that the new increment of the post 2021 charging post is 70% of the increment of the production of electric vehicles, and that the matching of wires and cables is also necessary when installing the charging post. Suppose that the copper consumption of wires and cables is twice that of the new energy vehicle and the charging post, the total copper consumption of the new energy vehicle sector is as follows:

Pv-copper demand is calculated using PV installed capacity data (in MW) per year from 2011 to 2020, with an average copper consumption of about 4.5 tonnes per mw of pv system. The calculated copper consumption for pv panels is as follows:

Starting from 2021, the proportion of primary nickel consumption in China’s new energy sector began to exceed 10% , and the proportion of refined nickel consumption in China’s new energy sector was close to 31% , become refining nickel consumption plate in the lower part of the incremental and accounted for the largest part. If the status of the ternary lithium battery has not been shaken, the consumption of nickel in the new energy sector will maintain a high growth rate, and the consumption of nickel in the new energy sector may account for as much as 32% of the original nickel consumption in 2025, as much as 44 per cent of refined nickel consumption. The main risk lies in the technological development of new energy vehicle non-lithium power battery. If more perfect power battery will completely replace the position of three-element Lithium battery in the future, the consumption increment of nickel medium and long term will change.

Silver and silver are widely used in electronic equipments and fields related to power generation because of their strong conductivity as metal materials. With the rapid development of photovoltaic and new energy automobile in recent years, the use of silver in this field, which may have been largely ignored, has come into the market’s attention. Silver’s share of new energy consumption is roughly as shown in the table below:

New Energy vehicle-silver because the application of silver in automobiles is relatively scattered, and the differences between different vehicle models are relatively large. According to the preliminary investigation and estimation of the World Silver Association, in the traditional light-weight internal combustion engine vehicles, the silver consumption per cycle ranges from 15 to 29 grams (on average 22 grams) , while for new energy vehicles such as light hybrid (MHEV) and plug-in Hybrid (Phev) , the silver consumption per cycle ranges from 18 to 39 grams (on average 28.5 grams) , with an increase of 20 to 35 per cent. In the case of electric vehicles (Bev) , the silver consumption per cycle can range from 25 to 50 grams (on average 37.5 grams) . In terms of the global production of new energy vehicles and the proportion of different types of vehicles, the proportion of light-duty vehicles (mainly 48V) will show relatively large growth in the next five years, however, the percentage change of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles is not very obvious.

By 2025, the three main categories of new energy vehicles will consume 557,100 kilograms of silver, a more than fourfold increase from 2020. In addition, the 2021 is also expected to reach 78,500 kg in terms of marginal increments, which may partly explain the sharp decline in dominant silver inventories worldwide this year.

Silver photovoltaic-silver is a major component of solar panels because of its malleability and electrical conductivity. Silver is used to solder 90% of the silicon on solar panels. Based on the CPV Association’s estimate of installed capacity in Gigawatts for photovoltaics 2021-2025, as well as the CRU’s previously published calculations of silver consumption per watt, the results are as follows:

Source: Huatai Futures Research Institute

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