ABSTRACT: In the past decade, photovoltaic and wind power has become the world's fast-growing energy types, the core factor is the rapid decline in costs. But that trend could be reversed by a rise in raw materials. Improvements in aluminium and zinc fundamentals are limited in the past decade, rapid cost reductions have been at the heart of why photovoltaic and wind power have become the world's fastest-growing energy types. But that trend could be reversed by a rise in raw materials. 1. According to the global wind power installed capacity calculation data, the cumulative global wind power installed capacity in 2020 is 733 gw, of which 282 gw will be installed in China and 111 GW will be installed in the world in 2020, of which 72 gw will be installed in China. By 2021 -- 2030, the world will add 969 gigawatts of wind power, of which China will add 447 gigawatts, according to Bloomberg. "2020 Beijing Wind Energy Conference" , more than 400 wind power enterprises for the first time launched a joint declaration, the declaration pledged to increase the average annual installed capacity of more than 50 Gw of wind power. After 2025, China's wind power installed capacity should be no less than 60 GW per year, and at least 800 GW by 2030. According to this calculation, China will add 518 Gw of wind power installed capacity between 2021 and 2030, which is higher than Bloomberg forecast, adjusted for China's new wind capacity in Bloomberg data, the global total is estimated to be 1040 gw between 2021 and 2030. 2. The Global PV installed capacity forecast data shows that the global cumulative pv installed capacity is 693 gw in 2019, including 225 gw in China and 48 gw in 2020. According to the Bloomberg data, the global cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity is estimated to be 833 gw in 2020, higher than the new global cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity of 773.2 gw announced by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association; the Global Photovoltaic installed capacity is estimated to be around 800 GW in 2020.

For the future, the Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association Forecast, "14th five-year" period, the average annual installed capacity of photovoltaic is generally expected to be 70 gw, optimistic forecast is 90 gw. Bloomberg predicts that 2023 will add 200 gw of new pv capacity by 2021 -- 2023, and we can use this to estimate that the world will add 1000 gw of new PV capacity by 2021 -- 2025. The 2021's Global Market Outlook, released on September 1st, predicts that cumulative pv capacity will increase by 1097GW between 2021 and 2025. Under favorable conditions, the cumulative new pv capacity will reach 1374GW in 2021 -- 2025. Under moderate conditions, the global PV installed capacity is expected to reach the following milestones in the next five years: 2021,1100GW in 2022,1300GW in 2023,1600GW in 2024 and 1800GW in 2025. Overall, it is estimated that the global PV capacity will increase by 1000 to 1374gw in 2021 -- 2025. 3. Global Wind power and photovoltaic new copper consumption 01. Application of copper in wind power and photovoltaic the specific application components of copper in wind power are tower cable, internal booster of generating units, external booster of generating units, internal cables of wind farms, motors, switchgear, control wires and cables, grounding wires and cables, etc. , it has a wide range of applications. For offshore wind power, the use of copper in each component is stronger than onshore wind power, especially for cables, which can account for as much as 59% of the total. Although different technologies have a slight effect on the copper usage intensity, the overall effect is limited due to the low proportion (8%) of copper used in motor and gearbox in the whole wind farm. Photovoltaic power generation system is composed of solar cell array, battery pack, charge and discharge controller, inverter, AC distribution cabinet, solar tracking control system, etc. , one junction box, transformer, copper wire and other components containing more copper. 02. The main factor affecting the intensity of copper usage in wind power is the choice of new installation on land and new installation on sea. According to the Wood Mackenzie report, 5,400 tonnes of copper per GW installed for onshore wind, 15,300 tonnes per GW installed for offshore wind and 5,000 tonnes for PV systems. Data from DBS bank showed that each installation of onshore wind power requires 4,000 tons of copper, offshore wind power requires 10,000 tons of copper, and each installation of photovoltaic systems requires 5,500 tons of copper. Combined with the average of the two statistics, it is estimated that 12,650 tons of copper are needed for each installed wind power plant on the sea, 4,700 tons of copper are needed for each installed wind power plant on the land, and 5,250 tons of copper is needed for each installed photovoltaic system.

4. Global Average annual wind and photovoltaic copper consumption in 2021 -- 2025 based on the above estimates, 1040 gw of additional wind power will be installed in the world in 2021 -- 2030. Taking into account the acceleration of wind power construction in 2025 -- 2030, the average annual wind power consumption is expected to increase by 100 GW in 2021 -- 2025. The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) predicted in 2020 that the new installed capacity on land in the world in 2021-2025 would be 9.7 gw, 9.1 gw, 9.9 gw, 13 gw and 21.5 gw respectively. Based on this, it estimated that the average annual copper consumption of wind power in 2021-2025 would be 570,000 tons. According to the above calculation, the global PV installed capacity will reach the following milestones under moderate conditions in 2021 -- 2025:2021,1100 gw in 2022,1300 gw in 2023,1600 gw in 2024, and 1800 gw in 2025, under the right conditions, the global average annual copper consumption will reach 1.44 million tons. In general, wind power + PV will consume 1.65 million tons of copper per year in 2021 -- 2025, and the average annual copper consumption of wind power + PV will reach 2 million tons in the optimistic case. In 2020, the copper consumption of wind power and PV was only 1.065 million tons, compared with the annual average marginal increment of 585,000 tons in 2020, reaching 935,000 tons. According to the global copper demand in 2020, the marginal increase was 2.5% to 4.1% .

5. Driven by the "carbon-neutral" goal of new aluminum consumption in global wind and photovoltaic power generation, emission reduction is the top priority. Natural energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy and tidal energy will replace traditional fossil energy sources and thus reduce carbon emissions, which will become the main trend in the future. Corresponding to the application of aluminum demand, mainly reflected in photovoltaic installation of aluminum demand, wind power installation of aluminum is relatively limited. The calculation of aluminum increment for pv installation is divided into two parts: one is aluminum consumption per GW installation, the other is the forecast of pv installation increment in the future. The aluminum consumption of unit GW photovoltaic installation is mainly used to make photovoltaic frame and bracket in photovoltaic field. 6. The size of pv frame unit GW aluminum consumption pv frame is mainly affected by the total size of silicon cells in the module, the total size = the number of cells and the size of a single silicon cell, so refer to the main products of component enterprises and their dimensions, as a standard for the size of aluminum frame. At present, there are three types of aluminum alloy used in photovoltaic frame, which are 6061,6063 and 6082. The densities are 2.75 g/cm3,2.69 g/cm3 and 2.71 g/cm3, respectively. Therefore, the aluminum consumption of pv frame is (the size of cross-sectional area component is long & Wide Alloy Density) , and the aluminum consumption per GW pv frame is about 0.9 ~ 11 thousand ton. Kill. According to the different construction methods, the PV power station can be divided into the distributed pv power station and the concentrated pv power station, and the aluminum alloy support is more used in the distributed pv power station. A 20 mwp distributed photovoltaic power generation project in Huainan is taken as a reference in the paper "comparative analysis of economic performance of aluminum alloy and steel supports" published by the National Nuclear Power Planning and Design Institute in 2016. The basic wind pressure of the project is 0.35 kn/m2, the basic snow pressure is 0.60 kn/m2, the design life of the support is 25 years. Using single crystal silicon 270wp module, the size of the module is 165099040mm, each module is 19.5 kg, 44 modules are an array. The fixed type is adopted, and the tilt angle of the bracket is 23 ° . All battery module supports are composed of columns, bevelled beams, bevelled braces, purlins, and connecting accessories. The main material of the selected aluminum alloy is type 6063-t6, the surface is anodized, the connecting bolts and nut gaskets are made of common bolts of Grade C. According to the calculation, the aluminum consumption per unit of GW distributed photovoltaic power station is about 19,000 tons. 8. Based on the above calculation of aluminum consumption per GW installed, combined with forecasts from China Photovoltaic Industry Association, European Photovoltaic Industry Association and Bloomberg data, that is, during the "14th five-year plan" period, the average annual installed capacity of new PV systems is estimated to be 70 gw in China, 90 gw in China, and 200 GW in the world. The aluminum consumption of pv frame in China is 701,000 tons (901,000 tons) , that is, 700,000 tons (900,000 tons) , and the aluminum consumption of pv stand is mainly concentrated on the newly installed distributed pv machine, which accounts for 32% of the total installed pv machine in China, that is 70.32% 1.9 = 425.60 tonnes 1.9 = 90.32% 1.9 = 547.20 tonnes, or about 500,000 tonnes per year of demand for aluminium. Comprehensive analysis shows that domestic demand for photovoltaic aluminum is about 1.2 million to 1.4 million tons annually, while overseas demand for photovoltaic aluminum is about 1.9 million to 2.28 million tons.

9. Global Wind Power and photovoltaic new zinc consumption in the wind power and photovoltaic industry, the main function of zinc in the form of zinc or zinc-rich primer attached to the steel surface to prevent corrosion, in the photovoltaic industry is mainly used in carbon steel photovoltaic stand on the anti-corrosion. It is understood that the thickness of the stent is generally greater than 2mm, the thickness of special parts should not be less than 2.5 mm. According to the national standard, for 2mm substrate, the local galvanized thickness should not be less than 45 m, the average thickness should not be less than 55 M. The research of related institutions shows that the annual average range of photovoltaic zinc use in the next five years is 0.40 million tons, and the total new increment is small. In the wind power industry, zinc consumption is mainly in the two major parts of the wind tower and bolts. The zinc coating in inland dry areas is smaller than that in offshore and offshore wind fields, where there is serious corrosion, the amount of zinc consumed by onshore wind is estimated to be 1 million to 1.5 million tons (mean 1.25 million tons) and offshore wind is estimated to be 1.2 million to 1.8 million tons (mean 1.50 million tons) . According to Irena's calculation, the demand of plain carbon steel for onshore power plants is about 100,000 as 140,000 tons/GW, and the average demand of plain carbon steel for offshore wind farms is about 110,000 as 170,000 tons/GW, the average demand is 140,000 tons/GW. Based on the above forecast of the installed wind power at sea and on land in 2021 -- 2025, it is estimated that the average annual zinc consumption of the newly installed wind power in the world in 2021 -- 2025 is 103,000 tons, which is similar to that in the wind power field in 2020, therefore, the marginal increase of zinc consumption of wind power in 2021-2025 has limited effect on the improvement of zinc fundamentals.

10. In general, the annual copper consumption of wind power + PV is 1.65 million tons in 2021 -- 2025, and that of wind power + PV is 2 million tons in 2020, while that of wind power + PV is only 1.065 million tons in 2020, compared with the increase of 585,000 ~ 935,000 tons in 2020, according to the global copper demand of 23 million tons in 2020, the marginal increase is 2.5% -- 4.1% . ALUMINUM: under the general situation of photovoltaic growth, the average annual aluminum consumption in 2021-2025 is 3.48 million tons, and under the optimistic situation of photovoltaic growth, the average annual aluminum consumption can reach 3.78 million tons, and the global aluminum consumption in 2020 is 2.033 million tons, in this way, compared with the increase of 1.5 million tons in 2020, global aluminum demand in 2020 will be nearly 60 million tons, marginal growth of 2.5% , the impact is relatively limited. ZINC: Zinc consumption in the field of photovoltaic is very low, the average annual consumption in the next five years is only 10,000 tonnes, the average annual consumption in the field of wind power is 103,000 tonnes in 2021 -- 104,000 tonnes in 2020, therefore, the marginal increase of zinc consumption of wind power in 2021-2025 has limited effect on the improvement of zinc fundamentals. 

Source: Futures Daily

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